- Автор темы Андрей Сырбу
- Дата начала

Before applying the Designed goals of Fibonacci, it is important to understand that broken support levels often become resistance levels during subsequent rallies, especially if a broken support level coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level. Scheme 1 shows a hypothetical example of the price drop from point A to point b, followed by a consolidation area, and finally a breakthrough to the point C (the classic example of a downtrend). The broken support level established during consolidation is now acting as resistance for the subsequent rally. Resistance at 60$ also represents a 50% recovery of motion from A to C (from$ 100 to$ 20).

A classic example of a downtrend: after the break of the support level, it acts as a resistance level

Scheme 1. A classic example of a downtrend: after the break of the support level, it acts as a resistance level

Figure 2 illustrates a graph "Xilinx, Inc." (XLNX) 4 October 2000. in November 2001, which shows the decline from point A to point B. the Trend halted temporarily and formed a consolidation area with support around 58$. After breaking below$ 58, a new decline has made a low of 35$. Then the price rallied from this low back to 58$, which is an important level because it was the level of support for the previous consolidation. Now this level has changed its role and acts as resistance. The movement from 35$ to 58$ is about the restoration of 38.2% of the move from 92$ to 35$ (92$ - 35$ = 57$ * 0.382 = 21.77$ + 35$ = 56.77$).

This example shows that when the resistance (or support level) is formed by violation of the

Broken support levels and resistance levels coincide with the Fibonacci restorations.

Scheme 2. Broken support levels and resistance levels coincide with the Fibonacci restorations.

previous support (or resistance), it often coincides with a Fibonacci ratio (23.7%, 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%) of the total movement, ending with resistance (or support), which is not so easily broken.

The basic premise underlying the Design goals of Fibonacci lies in the fact that market fluctuations in the same direction, are connected to each other from the points of breakthrough. Therefore, the movement from point B to point C in scheme 2 is associated with a movement from point A to point B Fibonacci ratio. It is important to note that the ratio between the two oscillations come from the breakthrough levels of support or resistance, not from the beginning of the second oscillations in the same direction. Based on this principle, we can conclude that the point where a breakthrough can represent an important Fibonacci retracement levels for subsequent corrections. Therefore, price targets can be obtained, assuming that the point of breakthrough is one of the Fibonacci retracement levels, and that trend should continue as long as he does not violate the level of support/resistance (established by the Fibonacci retracement level) and begins the counter-trend correction. Using this technique, you will be able to design future price targets:

Projected targets Fibonacci (PAF) use only four Fibonacci ratios: 23.7%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. If the price breaks through the horizontal levels of support/resistance, the following formula is used:

PAF = (Fibonacci ratio*A - B) / Fibonacci ratio - 1

where:

A - the start point of the first price fluctuations

B - the end point of the first price swing (horizontal support/resistance)

the Fibonacci ratio is one of the following: 23.7%, 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%

You will have to calculate values for four purposes, i.e., for each of the four Fibonacci ratios. Example of the application of PAF is shown in chart Industrial Dow Jones (DJIA) in figure 3.

Scheme 3. The projected target of Fibonacci.

These four levels have been calculated from the breakthrough point. Please note, later price is consistent with these levels. The upward movement starting from the point A (7400) to point B (8180) was followed by a downward correction. Only after the price broke above the resistance level, you can apply the Projected target of Fibonacci. In this case, you can calculate the four target levels using the formula PAF:

The restoration of 23.7%, or 0.237

PAF 1 = (0.237 * 7400 - 8180) / 0.237-1

PAF 1 = 8420

Recovery to 38.2% retracement or 0.382

PAF 2 = (0.382 * 7400 - 8180) / 0.382-1

PAF 2 = 8662 (level which temporarily halted the increase)

Restore 50% or 0.50

PAF 3 = (0.50 * 7400 - 8180) / 0.50-1

PAF 3 = 8960 (level which temporarily halted the increase)

Recovery 61.80% or 0.618

PAF 4 = (0.618 * 7400 - 8180) / 0.618-1

PAF 4 = 9440 (level which temporarily halted the increase)

You can apply this technique to downside movement in exactly the same way. The weekly chart of the FTSE 100 chart 4 shows the downward movement starting at the point A (6951) and ending at point B (5973), followed by a congestion area that lasted more than 10 months. After this consolidation, price broke below the support level.

Scheme 4. The projected goal for the Fibonacci of the downward movement.

After breaking resistance, can be calculated 4 the target level. By applying the Projected goals of the Fibonacci, you get the following price targets:

The restoration of 23.7%, or 0.237

PAF 1 = (0.237 * 6951 - 5973) / 0.237-1

PAF 1 = 5670

Recovery to 38.2% retracement or 0.382

PAF 2 = (0.382 * 6951 - 5973) / 0.382-1

PAF 2 = 5368 (level which temporarily halted the decline)

Restore 50% or 0.50

PAF 3 = (0.50 * 6951 - 5973) / 0.50-1

PAF 3 = 4995

Recovery 61.80% or 0.618

PAF 4 = (0.618 * 6951 - 5973) / 0.618-1

PAF 4 = 4391 (level which temporarily halted the decline)

Point Design purposes, Fibonacci can also signal trend reversals, making them a convenient tool to apply the strategies of money management. The graph in figure 5 illustrates how this can be done.

Scheme 5. PAF as a tool for money management.

The first PAF defines a pivot point that can be used as output levels. The downward motion starts at point A (11 750) and ends at point B (9732), followed by a rising correction and, ultimately, breaking through support at B. If you apply the formula PAF, it is possible to calculate the value for the first projected target:

Recovery Fibonacci 23.7%:

PAF 1 = (0.237 * 11750 - 9732) / 0.237-1

PAF 1 = 9105

The first Design goal Fibonacci has been achieved, as a minimum for the DJIA made 9107, just two paragraphs before reaching the PAF 1. As you can see in diagram 5, PAF 1 marked an important reversal in the weekly trend as the DJIA resumed its upward movement. This goal can be used as a point of exit from short position.

Like all indicators, the Projected Fibonacci target is not a standalone technique, but because of its efficiency and accuracy in projecting price targets, it should be one of the many technical tools in the Arsenal of the trader. It works because of market fluctuations in the same direction is often associated with the Fibonacci ratios from the point of the break through previous levels of support or resistance. These points can be combined with the normal strategies of money management is to minimize risk and maximize profits.