Analyst Yuriy Zaitsev


Thus, the data of macroeconomic statistics released mixed-neutral. Mortgage lending for November totaled 0.6 billion lbs 1.3 billion and 0.9 billion forecast the business activity Index in the construction sector for December came in better than forecast: 53.2 vs 52.3 per p. November forecast is 51.9 p.

Today published index of purchasing managers in the services sector for December, forecast to 51.6 p. in November against the values of 52.1, paragraph. Based on released yesterday in the Euro area the same index better than expected and UK PMI construction also better than expected, it is possible to expect good data today in the service sector.

Technically, the price could fall to the support area indicator lines and trend line in the area 1.5566 with a rebound. In this case the first target will be the resistance zone trend lines ~1.5634. Further 1.5697 and 1.5740.


Released yesterday data on new factory orders for November were worse than expected with a value of 1.8% m/m and 1.6% y/y. However, the Euro fell to 80 points an hour before the news and continued to decline to the closing of the American session. The cause of the fall was the statement of the largest Italian Bank UniCredit SpA plans to sell its own shares in the amount of 7.5 billion euros at a discount of 43%. Spanish Finance Minister Elena Mendez said that the additional provision of bad property loans this year need to raise 50 billion euros. The Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papadimos made a statement about a possible default of the country, which can happen in March, if trade unions will not agree to a further lowering of wages and Greece will not receive the second aid package of 130 billion euros. Representatives of the EU, IMF and ECB will arrive in Greece in mid-January. 30 January will be held the next EU summit.

The evening was published far exceeding expectations change jobs in the US private sector in December: 372К against 206К in November and forecast 177К. The number of applications for unemployment benefits fell to 372К against forecast 375К and 381К last week. The index of business activity in the services sector was lower than forecast, but higher than in November: 52,6 52,0 against. France quite successfully placed bonds for a total amount of 7,96 billion Euro ten-year yield of 3.29% and under thirty years of 3.97%. But the data failed to support the Euro.

Today published data on the unemployment rate in the Euro area: forecast to be 10.3%. In the USA unemployment figures are coming out: a forecast of 8.7% against 8.6% in November and the number of new jobs outside agriculture (nonfarm payrolls) is a forecast of 150-155K.

The current situation fundamentally and technically is not defined. It is not excluded that the Euro will be sold against the news. I believe that the fed continues to put pressure on the ECB and politicians in the Eurozone to begin the redemption of government bonds in large volumes. Out of the market.


The PMI for the services sector of the UK rose to 54 points, above the forecast at 51.9 p. Yesterday the pound was under pressure from negative developments in the Eurozone. The pound strengthened against the Euro by 40 points, not so much to the English press was enthusiastic about the strength of the national currency. However, due to political tensions in Hungary have accepted the amendments to the Constitution to strengthen political control over the courts, media, public organizations, as well as the Central Bank, which may entail sanctions of the European Union, above all in the rejection of the 10-emillianna loan for two years and a long-term 15-20 billion, and the risk of defaults of Greece and Ireland, indeed, the pound looks more preferable.

Technically, if after the price overcomes the level 1.5516 – middle line of the Bollinger envelope, opens the purpose of 1.5562 – resistance trend line. Further 1.5627.

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Data on labor in the United States came out significantly higher than forecast: the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, the number of new jobs outside agriculture amounted to 200 thousand against 120 thousand Nov and forecast 150 thousand. The data published so incredible that investors reacted quite logical – has recorded a profit the first week of January: the American DJ30 index fell 0.14 percent, the European DJ STOXX50 lost 0,85%, the Australian dollar fell by 25 points and the Euro by 73 points.


Data on labor in the United States came out significantly higher than forecast: the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, the number of new jobs outside agriculture amounted to 200 thousand against 120 thousand Nov and forecast 150 thousand. The data published so incredible that investors reacted quite logical – has recorded a profit the first week of January: the American DJ30 index fell 0.14 percent, the European DJ STOXX50 lost 0,85%, the Australian dollar fell by 25 points and the Euro by 73 points.

Nonfarm payrolls for December was revised from 120K to 100K, although they are assumed to be even smaller. Independent U.S. analysts are increasingly talking about the falsification of the macroeconomic data that go past six months. The economic recovery is happening, but much slower. In lending formed a stagnant situation: banks are reluctant to lend businesses a tiny percentage of, investments in treasuries also are unable to save their investment from inflation, buy potentially lucrative European debt tied to the risk of its cancellation. For banks and large investors remain only speculation on the stock market. To maintain the stock market's optimistic statistics did not support risk appetite. Without another QE, its growth seems problematic.

Vloomberg the Agency notes that only Ronald Reagan managed to win the election with the unemployment rate above 6 per cent, in 1984, he won at 7.2 percent. Obama himself called Friday's data is a sign that the American economy is steadily recovering. The only sector where you can manage to make a breakthrough before the presidential election in November is the real estate sector. In the United States remains unsold 1.5 million homes, so foreclosure of mortgage securities and the stimulation of mortgage lending can no longer be postponed.

Today in Berlin will meet Angela Merkel, N. Sarkozy and Mario Monti; in terms of the meeting, consideration of further steps to exit from the debt crisis and preparation for a European Union summit on January 30.

January 11 at the meeting of the Commission will discuss the political changes in Hungary, and on January 18 at a meeting of the Board of governors of the IMF would decide on granting the country an emergency loan.

January 25 will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal reserve. If the EU leaders meeting today to solve the debt problem in need for the fed's direction, then QE3 will probably be announced.

Today at 11:00 (GMT) trade balance of Germany in November, is expected to increase from 11.6 billion euros to 12 billion euros. At 15:00 GMT industrial production in Germany is expected to decline from 0.8% in October to -0.5% in November. Given the increase in yields on 10-year Italian bonds on Friday to 7.13% and Spanish desjatiletki to 5.7%, and lack of U.S. data, the Euro will be under pressure.

With a break of support on the daily chart 1.2674 to open the following purpose of decrease - 1.2620.


British pound under the influence of "negative positive" from the USA following the results of day has decreased on 72 points.

Today France is placing medium-term bonds for a total amount of 7.7 billion Euro, the U.S. places the three - and six-month Billy a total volume of 56 billion dollars. Also, the ECB announces a new seven-day tender on granting of soft loans. UK news today, no. Perhaps, after the completion of the American auction, the pound is free from the pressure.

Technically, after overcoming the support 1.5393 price will test support 1.5373 and possibly lower to 1.5329. In the case of penetration resistance will open the way 1.5435 resistance 1.5505.


The lack of growth of the US stock market yesterday in the absence of news can be interpreted as a doubt, investors in the high figures of the previous macroeconomic statistics. Now investors will focus to the actual reports of American companies. The first reported aluminum Corporation Alcoa: net profit for 2011 compared with the previous increased 2.4 times and amounted to 611 million dollars.

The current January for the market can be called "month of hope": 11 and 18 January, the issues in Hungary, January 16, decisions are made about restructuring of Greece's debt, offered additional public debt write-off (55-60%). 19 Jan open a summit of G-20 Finance Ministers in Mexico city, on January 23-24, the scheduled summit of EU Finance Ministers in Brussels, 30 Jan – European Union summit.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde at a conference in South Africa have indicated the positive outcome of the Greek crisis, today she's meeting with Angela Merkel in Berlin. These upcoming events and activity of political leaders can be a positive signal. Investors these signals are implemented in negative yields on German six-month bonds placed yesterday by the Bundesbank volume of 3.9 billion euros at yield -0,0122%. Significant macroeconomic statistics today will not be published.

In case of the breakout of yesterday's high 1.2785 price will be committed to carrying and signal lines to the area of 1.2857. In this way she has to overcome the resistance trend line of the Fibonacci channel (1.2813).


Today, Prime Minister David Cameron will make an official statement on the referendum in Scotland on secession from the United Kingdom. Suggests that he will refer to it neutrally, as has already been stated that the question of secession was an internal matter of the Scots.

Today was published strong data on the Chinese economy: Chinese exports in December was 13.4% annually vs. forecast of 12.5%. Foreign trade surplus made up 16.52 billion against a forecast of 7.8 billion Australian dollar on these data increased by 60 points, the pound sterling by 25 points.

Taking into account the uncertainty on many issues of the referendum (the date of the meeting, challenged its legitimacy, etc.), the British pound has room for growth.

Current goal 1.5503 resistance of Kruzenshtern line and trend line. In the case of penetration level the goal 1.5567 – trend line resistance of a higher TF.

The technical picture on a futures contract oats looks very profitable.

The price came out strong price range 318 – 324 points and at the same time of treugolnichki figures of the trend continuation. Breaking the high of February 6 332 the goal 353,5 - highs of 24 and 25 October 2012, coinciding with 271% level of Fibonacci.

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Who is not difficult to keep the position a week and a half, I recommend to pay attention to cross Euro-Rand.

On the hourly chart moving averages krasnoprydnaya(13, 21, 34, 55, 88) gathered in a bun and turned up. Price is now above МА144.

The four-hour chart MACD on the zero line of attack, Marlin is already in the positive zone.

The purpose 10.2040 – 271% Fibonacci level. Pay attention to the strong level 10.0740.

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Coffee-KS 16 March.

Coffee reached lows on expectations of record supplies from Brazil. Projected crop in Brazil this year will be 57 million bags, against 48.5 million in 2011.

Technically, the index prices could still fall to the level of 171.90 – max Feb of 2008, but even if it did, it now formed a correction ativandosage reduction, evidenced by a convergence on MACD. Growth target: 196.34 and in case of breaking 200.75 – low on February 16.

What would you buy on Monday?..

Invite my colleagues to pay attention to the four formed, in my opinion, signal the currency pairs and gold.


The price has shown a rebound from may 16-17 level 1526.30, near the lows of 26 September and 29 December 2011. May 23, the gold was pulled from these levels. Breaking through the resistance, where price stopped on Friday the 26th, opens the way to the first target 1598.70 – high may 21. Next 1625 – level 138,2% Fibonacci area and lows January 13, March 22, 23 and 25 APR.


On the daily chart Marlin oscillator pushed away from the zero line. The price rebounded from the upside of the price (red sliding) is a sign of continuation of trend. The signal for opening a position the price to overcome the the Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding) on the H4. Target: 1.6250 – area resistance trendline, then 1.6380 – level highs of August and October 2011.

Next two options for those who have swap free account because swap can negate the joy of the profits.


Graphically the pair is tuned to continued growth. The main feature of which is a rebound from the trend line may 22. Indicators signs of reversal is not served. After hitting 4.3785 consistently open three objectives: 1.4209, 4.4352, 4.4840. The figure clearly shows what kind of extrema they are built.


All indicators pointing up. Graphically completed correction in the form of the fourth wave. The target level of the fifth 8.3897, the interim target 8.2718.



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EUR/GBP. the Forecast for 14 June 2012

Yesterday's breakthrough, the price of the four-hour chart has crossed the Kruzenshtern trend line and Marlin oscillator is left in a positive zone. Created the first sign change of the medium-term trend. He confirmed after consolidation above yesterday's high 0.8105. In this case, open the way to 0.8139.

USD/CAD. the Forecast for 14 June 2012

At 16:30 (GMT) published canadian price index for new housing (New Housing Price Index) for April, forecast 0.5% vs. 0.3% in March. Also at 16:30 published by the coefficient of capacity utilization (Capacity Utilization Rate) for the first quarter, forecast 80.9 per cent versus 80.5 per cent.

At 18:30 the Bank of Canada gives an overview of the financial system.

Technically, USD/CAD downward trend (the talks) is also saved. The first target of 1.0255, the second 1.0200.