Analyst Yuriy Zaitsev

In my opinion formed a signal to open medium-term positions in buying the cross rate AUD/CAD.

The chart on the weekly scale the price rebounded from the support line.







On the daily chart the rebound point approximately coincides with the point of the rebound from the line of Kruzenshtern. It noted the target levels.







On the four-hour chart the price has also crossed the line of Kruzenshtern. Also the Marlin oscillator on all scales in the positive zone.







On the hourly chart the price breaks this trend line.







Coincidence one technical indicator patterns on different time frames tells us about the impending strong motion.



Also give an example in the classic version - a turn up raznoformatnyh moving averages: for all TF they unfold beam.

And the last point: swap long positions on the pair is positive.















 
EUR/USD

Investors remain concerned about the fact that very large loan of European banks, believing that the results obtained from the ECB means they will spend not so much on the purchase of government bonds as the solution to their own problems. Of the nearly 500 billion euros the total amount of received loans of 100 billion won by Italian banks, which at the moment is a concern to further reduce the credit rating of the country. In January, Italy must repay the bonds at 15.2 billion euros in February to 53.4 billion in March to 44.2 billion euros. However, she is forced to issue new releases to meet current expenditure.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week fell by 4 thousand to 364 thousand (the lowest level since April 2008), versus the forecast of 375 thousand requirements. However, this may be caused by the upcoming holiday of Christmas.

US GDP in III quarter of 2011. compared with the previous quarter increased by 1.8% in recalculation on annual rates vs forecast of 2.0%.

Core price index of personal consumption for Q3 came out at 2.1%, 0.1% above the 2nd quarter.

The index of consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan in December was at the level of 69.9 per p. vs forecast of 68.2. p. and 2.2 p. above the November value.

Today at 16:30 (GMT) published orders for durable goods for November. It is expected a significant increase: 2.2% vs -0.7% in October. Also expected increase in personal spending: 0.3% versus 0.2 percent in October.

The importance of today will be the release of data on the number of homes sold in the primary market for November at 18:00 (GMT). Is expected to increase from 307 million (in recalculation on annual rates) - October to 315 thousand in November. Compared to the previous month is expected to increase in sold homes from 1.3% in October to 2.6% in November.

Thus, there is reason for growth. But since the markets are closed for four days, amid growth in the volume of profit-taking, that there will be increased volatility.

In connection with the Catholic Christmas on December 25, 26 and 27 of the markets of Europe and the United States will be closed.



 
GBP/USD

Released yesterday data on UK GDP higher than forecast, actively entailed British values: FTSE100 showed an increase of 1.51%, while the DJ30 on U.S. GDP data lower than expected (1.8% vs forecast of 2.0% and 2.0% PREV), rose 0.76%. The data showed an increase UK GDP by 0.6% in the third quarter against the forecast of 0.5%.

At 12:30 (GMT) publishes data on the number of approved applications for mortgage loan in November. Expected growth 35295 October to 35400 in November and this is despite the fact that British analysts believe the property is overpriced. On the market there can be positive overall, followed by the release of data on the number of houses sold in the primary market is the USA (18:00 GMT): is expected to grow to 315К against 307К Oct.

In General, today the British press is neutral, important statements and comments, more focus on the upcoming London Olympics.



Technically, the price stuck firmly above support trend line. The goal is the resistance of the current range in the channel of older scale – 1.5759.



 
When will there be a second wave of crisis? Technical look.



To date, the largest banks of the world have two state of the global economy:

1. The second wave of the crisis happening in may 2011 and occurs while in the latent form. The situation in the Eurozone worsens by the month and by mid-2012 the crisis escalate into an acute form.

2. The acute phase of the debt crisis in the Eurozone ceased in December 2011 and now Europe, the USA and the whole world expects growth.

Usually out of the crisis is defined by three sequential factors: first, unemployment is reduced, after it increased production, and then there is the growth of GDP.

In this sequence, and consider the graphs of macroeconomic statistics of the USA and the European Union, according to Bloomberg.

The unemployment rate in the United States:








The graph clearly shows that albeit unevenly, but the US unemployment rate decreases from November 2009. Also published employment data for December (January 6) show a further reduction in: the Number of new jobs in nonagricultural sectors of the economy (Nonfarm Payrolls) predicts 140 thousand, a change in the number of employed in industry (Change in Manufacturing Payrolls) increased by 10 thousand.



In the Eurozone the unemployment situation worse, its value reached a record for 5 years, but latest data on the business optimism signals a peak on this index; the index of business activity in the services sector showed growth in October and December, the index of purchasing managers rising for two consecutive months, the composite index showed growth in October and December.








Industrial production USA:








Indices of industrial production of the USA the past six months in the lateral dynamics, while the capacity utilization from June shows growth.



Eurozone industrial production:








The industrial production in the Eurozone visually evolving in a bearish channel since March 2010. It is possible to expect a change in the situation following the decline in the unemployment rate. The first sign of this fracture showed Germany, where the change in volume of industrial orders unexpectedly rose from -4.6% Oct 5.2% Nov.



US GDP:








The graph shows the slower decline in growth rates.



Eurozone GDP:








From this brief overview one can see that the local annual economic downturn can be considered lapsed. Especially clearly demonstrate stock markets, ahead of showing the growth from October 2011. So, I am of the opinion on the further growth of the economy.

With the release of almost 500 billion euros to banks in the Eurozone, I think, has solved the problem of liquidity and rescue the banking system. Western analysts are concerned that banks will not buy bonds of troubled countries, but in reality they do not have to, they will invest in the real sector. Also, the us QE3 is not off.

How long will the growth continue? Consider the technical part.
 




Green trend lines are sloping levels of support and resistance. The blue lines act as support and resistance superalloy the diagonals of a rhombus global traffic 2000-2008 year. The intersection of the lines shows temporarily-the price coordinate of the target.

The intersection of the lines gives us 8 price levels and two temporal reference points: October 2012, marked by dotted vertical purple line and June 2013 marked with the red line. Price levels formed at an early date (2012.10) marked in purple: 1.4238, 1.5477, 1.6324. Solid line denotes the strongest levels. Price levels formed on a later date (2013.06) marked in red: 1.4507, 1.4892, 1.5765, 1.6610, 1.7039.

Thus, we have two start dates of the second wave of crisis: the October 2012 or June 2013. In fact, it is not the second wave, and the new financial crisis.
 
The definition of another recession, according to the schedule of the British pound gives us a slightly different date: February 2013.

In this area the gbp/usd currency pair the describes the cyclic periods and Gann grid. From the peak of October 2007 will mark the cycle of the fall-the rise - it is equal to 21 months. The fall in the first cycle lasted 14 months and growth in 7 months. In the second cycle, the fall lasted for 9 months and growth in 12 months. In the third and current cycle, the decline lasted 5 months, and is expected to grow respectively at 16 months. It is noteworthy that the decrease in fall time in cycles consistent with the dimension of the Fibonacci. The end of the third cycle falls on February-March 2013. The intersection of trend lines with a vertical line the end of the third cycle to form price targets to its maximum.







Position on the chart Gann grid with the base at the lows of Jan 2009 and may 2010. The right apex of the rhombus also coincides with February 2013. Here note that the end of the fall in the third cycle coincides in time with the angle of the Gann grid (marked by yellow mark).







So, graphical analysis shows us the pound on the same date and many price levels. Anyway, we tried to answer the question "when"?
 
EUR/USD

In connection with the Christmas weekend the market is low volatility, but technically favorable conditions for the movement of prices up. On the daily chart scale the price managed to fixate above the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the large range of TF weekly, four-hour scale, the price is out of the blue the Kruzenshtern trend line and the brown line of the Fibonacci channel and anchored over them. With the opening of markets in Europe and the United States, the price can make a sharp rise. According to the established "traditions" markets often act out terminated two days off optimism rallied. So in 2010, the price for a half day with an opening auction before the correction, rose by 180 points, 2009, the first year this rule was the exception, the price fell 130 points. In 2008, two post-Christmas day price rose 350 points before a prolonged drop in 2007 during the three days the price went up 260 points, in 2006, during the four days of 260 points. In 2005, the price was five days in a sideways movement with a subsequent two-day jump on 320 points.

this year there are fundamental reasons for maintaining such a post-Christmas tradition.

the First goal is 1.3115 – resistance of the intersections of the trendline and the line of Fibonacci channel on the chart of the four-hour scale.

the Second goal - 1.3159 – channel resistance FIB. Next - 1.3198 – high of 21 December, in the current situation coincides with the resistance of trendline on the daily chart TF. Strategic goal – 1.3281 – resistance of the Kruzenshtern line on a daily chart, and resistance boundaries of the Bollinger bands daily TF.

















 
GBP/USD

The unexpected drop in prices on Friday, December 23, formed the fourth wave of the considered five-wave structure from the low of the 14th of December.

In the current conditions of the market development opportunity to a post-Christmas rally, considered in the forecast for the Euro, is relative to the pound sterling. The end of the fifth wave, as the realization of this movement, it is assumed at the intersection of the trend lines the daily scale 1.5808. In case the price fixates above these lines may be expected elongation of the fifth wave to the subsequent resistance of trendline and Fibonacci levels of 76.4%, in the area of 1.6000.







Local goals on the way to 1.5808 marked on the four-hour chart.

Open positions at the purchase is possible after the price crosses the line of Kruzenshtern daily TF above 1.5650.



 
EUR/USD

Monday 26th of December was published, the unemployment rate in France, it amounted to 9.7%, an increase of 0.1% over the quarter. Bloomberg notes that of the six Eurozone countries with the highest AAA rating, France, as the owner of the greatest debt 85% of GDP, among the countries with this rating, could become the first country to get it reduced.

Italy today and tomorrow places government bonds at 20 billion euros. Yields on 10-year Italian bonds again reached a critical level of 7%. Investors are afraid to trade on euros.

Yesterday the Vice-President of Iran, R. Rahimi said that in the case of tougher sanctions against the country, and in particular attempts to restrict Iranian oil exports, Iran blocks the passage through the Strait of Hormuz which separates the Persian Gulf from the Indian ocean. On this news, oil prices rising and the dollar may weaken, unless, of course, the placement of the Italian bonds will be a success.



Technically, the Euro develops in a narrow price range of 40 points. In case the price overcomes the level of 1.3053 may further decline to support the Fi channel (1.3000). In case of overcoming the resistance of Fi-channel at the level of 1.3090, it is possible to achieve the subsequent price of 1.3141 resistance and further to a maximum of 21 Dec - 1.3197.



 
GBP/USD

Amid the hype about the collapse of the Eurozone, the UK intends to introduce restrictions on the import and export of capital, according to the pipeline protection plan from the fall of the Euro. This was announced yesterday and the pound strengthened markedly. Today's macroeconomic data for the UK and the USA do not go. The pair will be trading from the data of the auction of Italian bonds.



Technically, the pound has the risk to decrease. Price below the moving average of the balance, below the support trend line. Marlin oscillator is in negative zone and pointing down. In the case of overcoming price and support of Kruzenshtern line (~1.5633), possibly reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the senior scale, and in the case of a breakthrough, reaching the level of the support trendline of the older scale - 1.5564. In the case of continued growth, breaking local peaks 1.5675 possible to achieve the level of Fibonacci 50% of the senior scale and movement to a subsequent target 1.5770 – line resistance on daily chart scale.







In the graphical tool channels Bollinger price will be above the median lines of envelopes, which indirectly indicates the advantage of upward movement.



 
EUR/USD

So, yesterday Italy quite happily spent the first day of placements, selling as planned, six-month bonds at 9 billion euros at a yield of 3.25% and a two-year 2.5 billion Euro. The yield on 10-year bonds decreased to 6.84%. The yield of the Spanish desyatiletok also declined to 5.03%.

However, in the evening, quite unexpectedly, the Euro began a rapid decline to 1.2911, having lost 160 points. The pound fell 230 points. This despite the fact that in the related markets losses were disproportionately smaller. Yesterday's decline in the us Dow Jones by 1.05% is primarily associated with profit-taking after five days of growth.

News agencies reported that on the fall of the markets affected data record assets on the balance sheets of the ECB in the amount of 3.83 trillion. the Euro, which signals problems in the banking sector. Obviously, it implies monetary aggregates M2 and M3 short – term and medium-term deposits of major customers. Traditionally, the increase in the money supply is a symptom of inflation, but in the current environment of passive money supply can not serve as such factor because the banks are unable to quickly place the resulting from ECB funds. Most likely this information should be taken as a common symptom of the stagnation of the economy. I believe that yesterday's drop in the Euro has been prepared by the action of the fed and American companies as a response to the reluctance of the ECB and European banks to buy government debt of their respective countries. Such aggressive actions may be due to the fact that since February 2012 the fed's quantitative easing will begin. The next fed meeting is scheduled for January 27.



In connection with the above opinion further significant decline is unlikely. In case of breaking today's low of 1.2887 movement can be restricted to support wideband channel beginning on may 4, 2011, low of 1.2844. Out of the market.







 
GBP/USD

Pound sterling to yesterday's events in the banking sector of the Eurozone, being more volatile currencies, has fallen more than EUR 230 points and the low of the day for 250 points. Meanwhile, the British FTSE the results of yesterday lost 0.31%, which confirms the assumption of the speculative dumping of the prices on Euro and pound. While the Australian dollar lost 120 points, the canadian dollar is 100 points, the Japanese yen for a total of 40 points.

The inertia of the price may be further reduced to support 1.5403. In case of breaking support the next level at 1.5370. In case of overcoming the resistance of the trend line in the area of 1.5470 may increase to 1.5518.

In the same way as in the forecast against the Euro, I expect the growth of English currency, but for sure the opening of trading positions should form signals based on indicators. After a sharp drop in the signal can be formed not earlier than 30 December.

The main negative factor for the British economy is the high unemployment rate of 8.3%. The British Chartered Institute of personnel and development (CIPD) predicts the unemployment rate at 8.8% by the end of next year. This negative predictive background investors can more sensitively perceive the current U.S. data on initial applications for unemployment benefits. It is expected 372К against 364К passed weeks.

Out of the market.



 
EUR/USD

Yesterday ended the second day of the placement of Italian government bonds. The Italian Treasury sold 10-year bonds worth 2.5 billion euros at 6.98 percent. Three-year bonds worth 2.5 billion euros have been placed under of 5.62%. This is a good sign, because a month ago, Italy sold three-year period under of 7.89%.

Yesterday released the M3 money supply – deposits of large depositors went below the November rate of 2.8% with a value of 2.5%. It may indirectly indicate no problem of placement of funds and inflation risks.

The index of business activity in the Midwest USA showed a decline of 0.1 point: from 62.6 to 62.5 Nov Dec the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 381К against 364К last week, but this did not prevent the Dow Jones increase by 1%. The growth showed and European stocks. The Euro rose from a minimum of 100 points.



Technically, the price has chosen the entire width of the bearish channel the daily scale with a peak of 4 may 2011, with Marlin oscillator formed by the convergence and how the speculative moment the 28th and 29th of December there was a "vitryska market." All these factors point to the subsequent growth of the single European currency. Today, the last trading day of the year, we can expect a sideways movement.





 
GBP/USD

In the USA the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 381К against forecast 372К and 364К last week. However, this news had no impact on the pound. Moreover, American analysts immediately began to reassure the market that the value of the secondary after the growth of jobs. Nonfarm Payrolls for December, coming January 6, is expected at 150K versus 120K Nov. That is, as at the beginning of December, the statistical service will continue to support the us market inflated data.

Similar to the Euro, the pound also worked for global channel support, but in a different structure. This channel is shown in bold lines. On the four-hour chart the price has formed a small triangle. He can regroup in another piece, but for the moment creates the risk of another test of support.

In General, the situation is unclear and must await the decision of the market.

Today at 10:00 (GMT) comes out of the British price index for housing is expected to decline 0.4% over the month (0.0% vs. 0.4% November) and 0.1% for the year. At 12:30, we get the volume of mortgage loans in Q3: expected slowdown in the decline to -7,3 billion pounds against -9,1 billion in the previous period. Supportive factor for the British currency may be the growth of stock markets.

Out of the market.







 
EUR/USD

Since the beginning of the Asian session the Euro began to show growth, probably on the optimistic forecasts for economic development of Australia and India. Sentiment index in industry of China for December came out the same as last month: 49.7, against the background of talks about slowing in the Chinese economy is a good enough story.

Today post bonds of France and Holland, in the evening sells three and six-month bonds. At 12:55 (GMT) publishes data on the change in the number of unemployed in Germany is expected to decrease by 10K. The index of sentiment in the industry of the United States in December is expected to 53.2 points versus 52.7 points Nov. Thus, morning optimism can be supported.



Technically, the conditions for the opening of the shopping took place: Marlin oscillator have crossed upwards the zero line, the price fixated above the trend of Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding) and currently the price is facing resistance of the downward trend line. Overcoming this resistance (1.2997), opening goal 1.3049 – resistance on the daily chart scale, then 1.3065 – the level of consolidation in the four-hour scale and 1.3093 resistance bullish channel the daily TF.









 
GBP/USD

It is noteworthy that on the last trading day of the past year, the pound returned to those levels, which were bought by strategic players in late November-early December and in mid-December. http://ruforum.mt5.com/threads/12753...=1#post1332372

Now the main feature of the further growth of the pound in the medium term could be the increase of negative news. Today at 12:30 (GMT) published index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, is expected to decline from 47.6 points November to 47.3 points in December.

To continue upward movement the price has to overcome the resistance of the trend (green line) and the Kruzenshtern line (1.5560). The first objective of 1.5624 – resistance, the upward trendline and Kruzenshtern line daily scale, the second purpose 1.5697 – a maximum of 20 and 27 December.







 
EUR/USD

The foreign policy situation around Iran is heating up. France calls on the members in the Alliance to join the United States to declare an embargo on imports of Iranian oil. I believe that the war in Iran will begin, as tensions with Syria subsided, that is, the US military are focusing attention on Iran.

In 2003, the us troops in Iraq pulled US economy out of the protracted recession. Stocks and the Euro grew up on this momentum until 2005. Now solved a similar problem with the difference that in 2003 oil was $ 27 per barrel, and now more than 110 dollars, and foreign debt was 6.5 trillion dollars, and now a 14.6 trillion. However, stagnation of the economy and stock markets due to increased oil prices the fear is unlikely, as the main consumers of Iranian oil China, India and Japan the lack of raw materials unable to fill the supply from Russia, Canada and the Asian republics. And this factor, in turn, will strongly affect the rise in oil prices. Business quite master the price of oil at 150 dollars per barrel, psychologically they are ready to.

Released yesterday macroeconomic statistics appeared to market the catalyst postponed in December growth because of the reluctance of the ECB to buy the debt of Eurozone countries. The index of purchasing managers in the services sector of China in December rose from 49.7 to 56, the index of purchasing managers in industry increased from 49 to 50 points. German unemployment data was also very strong: the number of unemployed decreased by 22 thousand, and the unemployment rate was 6.8% against the forecast of 6.9%. The U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for December came out at the level of 53.9 points versus 52.7 in November and p. forecast of 53.2 p.

France yesterday placed a three-month promissory notes in the amount of 4.43 billion euros under 0,023% (the previous issue had a yield of 0.005%) and 11-month promissory notes in the amount 2,075 billion euros under 0,136% (the previous issue had a yield 0,176%). Was also posted 23-week bonds for 2.2 billion euros under 0,074%. Last edition was held under 0,176%. That is, investors are not worried about the economic situation in France in the medium term.

Yesterday also very successfully issued short-term bonds Belgium and the Netherlands.

Today at 12:00 (MSK) published European data managers in the service sector (48,3 p.) and supply (47,9 p.) – forecast – unchanged. At 18:00 GMT factory orders, US November: the forecast of 1.9% vs. -0.4% in October.



Technically, after overcoming the resistance of the downward trend line (1.3060) it is possible to continue rise towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level and maximum 21 Dec ~ 1.3180 and resistance level to 1.3241 – resistance trend line.







On the four-hour chart the data objectives are aligned with the lines of the Fibonacci channel.



 
GBP/USD

The growth of the British pound yesterday had a strong influence on the published data of macroeconomic statistics of China and Europe is significantly higher than forecast.

In the UK, the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector also increased from 47.7 points November to 49.6 in December.

Today at 12:30 (GMT) publishes data on mortgage and consumer credit for November is expected a slight decline. It is also expected to decrease in business activity in the construction sector in December: 51.9 vs. p. 52,3 in November.

Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, told the newspaper The Telegraph the view that in the fourth quarter GDP decline of 0.2% and 12 January, the Bank of England could cut rates.

And while I do not exclude that in the case of today's negative data release, the market will ignore them.



Technically, the price managed to fixate above the line of Kruzenshtern and the daily chart is in front of the red resistance trend line. To overcome the resistance (~ 1.5662) the first goal would be to 1.5697, the high of 20 and 27 December, the second objective of the 1.5739 resistance of trend line on four hour TF and the third goal 1.5792 – resistance of trendline on the daily TF.







 
EUR/USD

Published yesterday, the European data managers in services and supplies for December came in better than forecast: the purchasing managers index in the services sector showed a value of 48.8 vs. 48.3, p Nov and forecast unchanged, the composite index of purchasing managers was 48.3 against 47.9 per p p November forecast unchanged. Factory orders in the US for November showed growth at 1.8% vs. -0.4% in October and forecast of 1.9%. And if the stock market first half of the session he felt pressure, to the close of trading, the Dow Jones was in a symbolic positive territory 0,08% (March futures). The currency pair to rise are unable, after falling 150 points. This negative RBC commented: "market Participants believe that the financial institutions of the Old world may require more capital to ensure the stability of the banking system of Europe". Practically, this means that the Eurozone is still under pressure from American financial institutions with the requirement to begin the redemption of government bonds of Alliance members.

Today at 13:00 (MSK) published a key indicator of new orders in industry for November, an indicator of industrial production for the future, is expected to increase 2.5 percent on the month and 3.3% on year vs -6,4% on the month in October and 1.6% for the year. At 16:30 published the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S., is expected to decline to 375К against 381К the previous week. This Friday, Nonfarm payrolls are projected at very high level – from 150 to 155K, that is, the United States shall make every effort to maintain optimism.

Technically, the price may test the support of the daily chart 1.2871. In case of refund of price over carrying the moving average (red MA on the chart) and the Krusenstern line (blue), and overcoming the resistance line of Fibonacci channel (brown) above 1.2941, open the target 1.3030 and resistance trend lines the daily and four-hour timeframe.







 
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