Analyst Yuriy Zaitsev


The Bank of England left its base interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

Today the trade balance for October. Is expected to decline from 9.8 billion pounds to 9.4 billion But underlying the producer price index for November is expected to rise by 0.1%.

Manufacturing input prices are rising: the fall of -0.8% in October is expected to be -0.1% in November.

Output prices are expected to be without change: 0,0%.

Technically, the situation is very similar on days 2 and 7, when the price went along the brown trend lines, they are highlighted with a yellow oval. Under the resistance of the lower line of the pitchfork, with mixed news, given Friday, price will stagnate.

In case of the breakout of 1.5590, that is, after the release of below the support trendline and 50% Fibo level, it is possible to achieve a minimum of 30 November – 1.5525. But for this price you still need to overcome and the moving line of Kruzenshtern (~ 1.5580), and she's strong enough - bounces from her checked.

As a recommendation to wait until Monday ).

Sugar is SB

Alternatively, the Euro and the pound in trading today I recommend to pay attention to the sugar contract #ЅВН2. Opening of trading session at 12:30 Moscow.

In General, all countries show very high yields of sugarcane and sugar beets. Russian refineries can't process all of the crop, and the producers leave the beets in the fields. However short term you can buy. Technically, the price rebounded from the Fibonacci extension and may be up for the entire fan. Leading oscillator Marlin, though still in the negative zone, but showing a short term reversal. Targets marked by red lines.


So, for Europe and the Euro summit in Brussels has had an encouraging effect. In the proposed reforms that should stabilize within the Eurozone, the leaders of the EU countries should commit themselves to adopt only balanced budgets, by which means the budget with the annual structural deficit not exceeding 0.5% of nominal GDP. Also, the slight excess of this level for States whose public debt is below 60% of GDP.

Also, the participants of the summit agreed to accelerate the establishment of a permanent European stability mechanism (ESM) – in addition to the current European financial stability Fund (EFSF). Moreover, the stabilization financial mechanism should appear by mid-2012.

In addition, the EU will allocate the International monetary Fund bilateral loans worth up to EUR 200 billion. For these funds, the IMF, in turn, can help the Eurozone countries.

Croatia and the European Union signed the Treaty on accession to the organization.

Question on the accession of Serbia because of the position of Germany was delayed until the spring of 2012

The ECB opened the banks access to unlimited three-year loans while lowering the collateral requirements.

The overall picture is spoiled Kingdom disagreed on control of its financial institutions from the Euro area and by refusing to enter into fiscal Union. However, the members of the Alliance intend to ratify the treaties without the participation of London.

The negative balance of trading balance of the USA in October 2011. decreased in comparison with September (-44,17 billion) and accounted -43,47 billion.

The indicator was the lowest in the last 10 months. Analysts predicted its value at level 44 billion.

Industrial production in France in October 2011. not changed compared to the previous month. Expected to reduce the rate of 0.2%.

According to Bloomberg, the European stock market also supported the statement by M. Draghi about the intention of China to invest $ 300 billion in the Eurozone.

On Friday, the Us index S&P500 rose 1.7 %. The European Stoxx Europe 600 added 1.2% and the Euro closed with a white candle at 1.3385. The yield on ten year Italian bonds fell 10 basis points to 6.36%. The index commodities S&P GSCI added 0.2 percent, recovering the loss of the (lead, silver and copper).

Today, the United States publishes the budget balance for Nov: consensus expects -140 billion. vs -129 billion in October. The official meaning of October -98,5 billion, but it accounted for a portion of Treasury payments in September that the deficit was "reduced".

Technically, the situation is similar to Friday. To continue medium-term growth, the price should fix above the line of Kruzenshtern and a red resistance trend line above 1.3385. Up to this point it is still possible near-term pushing down as "retribution" for disagreeing with the requirement of the UK and the hidden will of the fed (of course, if it really is).


Fundamentally pair exactly followed events in Brussels. Technically, the price rebounded from the trend line of Kruzenshtern (1.5584), to which attention was drawn in the previous forecast.

And before that rebound among the participants there was a serious split. Four countries – UK, Hungary, Czech Republic and Sweden – refused to sign the amended basic Treaty of the European Union, strengthening the vertical of power and financial discipline. In exchange for such consent London, Prime Minister David Cameron wanted to achieve the special advantages for the British financial sector by amending the Lisbon Treaty. First of all he achieved for England exceptions in the field of financial control. These demands, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy called "unacceptable" and supported him.

London has made it clear that he would not sacrifice his independence to try to fix things in Europe.

But far there is no consensus in the very highest circles of England on the issue of reverse integration with the European Union. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg admitted that he was "bitterly disappointed" with the outcome of the summit, when David Cameron used the UK veto and broke new agreements with the EU. According to him such a demarche England become closer to USA, but moving away from Europe. European politicians agree in opinion, that England will lose and what they had in the Eurozone.

It turns out that was a loss not only of England but also the United States. Europe showed strength in the decisive moment. The European Union will no doubt strengthen. It is possible that in a short time (faster than expected prior to the summit), the European Union will lead to real, not nominal President...

If the efforts of the EU peripheral countries of the European Union will not hinder the ratification of accepted agreements, then the Euro will continue to strengthen for another few months, until the next severe crisis. The pound might be more independent in its technical picture of the Euro-dollar.

On Friday we deficio trade balance UK: in October 2011 compared with September, he declined to 7,557 billion pounds.

The open positions at the purchase possible above the level of 1.5565 when the price meets the resistance of the red carrying medium. Target levels marked on the chart.


"Grand spanking" took place.

According to the results of yesterday Euro was down 210 points.

The Pro-American rating Agency Fitch said that the measures adopted at the Eurozone summit, is insufficient for exiting the crisis and that to improve the situation required the intervention of the ECB.

The Federal budget deficit the U.S. in November 2011 amounted to 137,3 billion. against the forecast 140 billion.

The main event today is the fed. If interest rate everything is clear, it will not change (0,25%), on the issue of QE-3 – the decision on quantitative easing program, the intrigue increases. Under the new plan of Obama on this goal already scheduled $ 500 billion for the first half of 2012. The markets were expecting the beginning of the infusion of liquidity through the purchase of mortgage-backed securities since November, but due to misunderstandings with the Eurozone beginning had to be postponed. Ahead of the summit of European complicity in the program of quantitative easing was almost solved, but the EU leaders at the last moment "summed up" without agreeing to the terms of the UK. Now the lowering of credit ratings of all EU countries is inevitable.

But will it be announced QE in any form today? Possible. Bloomberg, based on the good employment figures last month, warns that nothing serious from this meeting today should not wait. But in reality the picture is not so rosy as I have already mentioned, the data on new jobs 2 December has been exaggerated. It continues to decline industrial production: forecast Industrial Production for November, published 15 December, shows a decline in October of 0.5%. Housing starts (data release December 20) is projected with a reduction of 1 thousand from October, building permits issued less than 18.000. Sales in the secondary housing market reduced by 0.3%. Even retail sales, published today, are expected to decline (and it's on Christmas eve!) 0.1 - 0.2% m/M. Well, applications for unemployment benefits, published tomorrow, is expected to increase by 9 thousand

That is, the "enthusiasm" of production, shown in November, exhausted, and cannot exist without cash injections. This should be taken into account the interests of those investors who bought "at the request" of the fed cash the Euro and pound in late November.

Technically best option is today. The price is twice noted the support of the downward channel (yellow circles). The time period Fibonacci coincides with the present day.

A smaller plot scale do not spread, because in the moment it is uninformative. Signals for opening of positions are formed in any case will not. Out of the market.


Prime Minister David Cameron said yesterday that despite the refusal to join the fiscal Union, "EU membership is vital to our country."

Today published data on inflation. The consumer price index is projected with a monthly increase of 0.1% Oct 0.2% Nov annual decrease of 0.2% (4,8%). Basic consumer price index is expected to decline by 0.1% (3.3% in November compared to 3.4% in October), there is reason for the stronger pound is. Even if data is worse, you can always such as the index of inflation is open to interpretation: what is good and what is not so good. Such comments are easy to hide the intervention of the Central Bank. In General, there is no reason for the fed and the Bank of England to withdraw at this stage from the weakening of the dollar. Only when all economic, financial and political factors converge at one point in time, perhaps the beginning of the second wave of the crisis.

Technically, the price is again above the trend line of Kruzenshtern and brown above the trend line. Breaking the red balance line in the area of 1.5625-35 it is possible to open positions at the purchase. The first objective of 1.5755.


The index of economic expectations ZEW in Germany in December increased by 1.4 p : -53,8 against -55,2 November and pessimistic forecast -55,8. Economic sentiments for the Eurozone have also improved: -53,8 against -59,1 Nov.

U.S. retail sales in November decreased from 0.5% to 0.2%. Overstocked warehouses exceeded even the pessimistic forecast of growth by 0.7% - the data came out at 0.8%.

The fed has left its benchmark interest rate at 1.25%. The report noted moderate economic growth and employment, there has been some stagnation in construction. In addition, the Committee will continue to transfer their debt obligations from the state securities in mortgage-backed securities with their subsequent prolongation.

Essentially, we see the continuation of operation Twist with the introduction into it of the mortgage item. Instead of supporting market and business fed continues to work on inflating the bubble of foreign debt. Markets quite naturally fell.

Technically after the break of the support at 1.3000 opens the purpose of 1.2888. But here caution is required; two days price was falling almost vertically, the markets may just fizzle out, now is not a crisis and not panic. On four hour TF price twice slid across the blue line Bollinger is a reversal or rebound. Leading oscillator CoeffofLine with even more perseverance growing up. An indirect indicator of the lack of fears in the market is the dynamics of gold prices, and gold is safely reduced. On the other hand investors are simply shifted to U.S. medium and long - term bonds. Yesterday, the Treasury placed 10-year notes (bonds with a fixed interest rate) to 21 billion dollars, 4-year (52-week) t-bills $ 25 billion. Today are 30-year bonds for us $ 17 billion. It is possible that after the auction, implementing the securities at a high price, American banks will no longer keep the dollar and the Euro will go up again.

Target levels for both scenarios are marked on the chart.


Consumer prices in the UK in November 2011. rose by 0.1% in the month and decreased by 0.2% for the year, both released at the level of the forecast.

Basic index of consumer prices decreased by 0.2%: 3.2%, and 3.4% against the October forecast of 3.3%.

In General, everything said about the Euro in the current situation can be applied to the pound; if the market is deliberately withheld during the period of deployment of U.S. debt, at the end of the auction he must start to rise.

Position opening on sale is possible only after the price overcomes the support 1.5443. Here there is accumulation levels supports the targets on the daily and four hour time frames: 1.5416, 1.5400, 1.5384, 1.5352. In case of reversal target is the resistance at 1.5545.

If you continue to fall and stay in the area 1.5384 the entire structure, starting from 27 October, will take the form of a complete ativandosage movement, it is numbered with the green numbers. But taking into account that in larger scale the pair is in the global market, the markup of the waves can be different – type correction flet (structure 3-3), then trenbolona structure of the reduction is completed and starts trenbolona structure increase, it is numbered in yellow.


Yesterday Italy placed an issue of 5-year bonds worth 3 billion euros at yield of 6.47%. Germany sold two-year bonds at 4.2 billion euros. under 0,29%.

Perhaps the failure of Italy to place the bond at a lower yield, has caused a pessimistic mood regarding the Euro.

Industrial production in the Eurozone for October showed growth of 0.9% (-0.1% vs. -2% in September, but the forecast was 0.0%).

Today we publish some news on the Eurozone and all the macroeconomic data are projected lower (at 13:00 (GMT) - the indices of purchasing managers; 14:00 – consumer price indices November, and employment data for 3rd quarter). Also at 13:00 is published monthly report of the ECB on the decisions of the meeting on 8 December.

US also published a dozen. but the main data in the current conditions of employment and industrial production, once again are expected worse than previous periods.

The fed can not understand the inability of its economy to develop without continual cash injections and the second wave of the crisis will begin when the infusion will be impossible to implement. In the meantime, the business and the markets rightly expect.

Also note that yesterday, the price declined until the end of the auctions for 30-year bonds in the United States. After placing the Euro immediately rose by 30 points. In the near future, the Treasury does not announce the placements and the period of repayment of previously issued bonds. In these times the dollar is traditionally cheaper.

Graphically channels Bollinger began to converge is a signal to turn. Open positions at the purchase is possible not earlier the transition, the price of the average line of one of them, the nearest green dotted line – the middle line of the envelope parameters 13-1,618: 1.3060. CoeffofLine the oscillator while in negative territory. Out of the market.


The unemployment rate remained at the level of October: 5%, consensus 0.1 PCT.

Today, we get retail sales for November; forecast -0.3% vs. 0.6% Oct.

Yesterday the Prime Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond has proclaimed an intriguing statement about the possibility of the secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom and membership of the Eurozone.

A. Salmond criticized the decision of Prime Minister David Cameron's refusal to sign a Treaty creating a fiscal Union, calling such a move isolationism.

Scotland is one third of the UK, 8.2% of the population and 90% of the British oil. Political analysts say that against the refusal of David Cameron from joining the fiscal Union significantly increased the probability that A. Salmond will be able to hold a referendum on separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom, which he intended to hold another in 2010. This Department is the main point of Salmon headed by the Scottish national party.

In the case of independence it is assumed that the Scottish currency will remain the pound sterling. Euro membership is viewed as a long-term perspective.

While the markets reacted to this news calmly.

By the way: David Cameron, himself a Scot.

Briefly take a look at the monthly chart:

According to the classics of technical analysis triangle consists of five branches. If the emerging structure is a triangle, then the long-term prognosis may be as shown in the figure.

The current situation is. Yesterday, the price decided to stay on the first level of support. This matevosova formed a downward structure. But ended?

In the four-hour scale can be seen the seven waves, formation, very similar to the correction of "double flat" (3-3). Here x is the wave-sheaf. If it is really a double flat, it is now finished and the new one starts upward of the N-wave design. But the lights did not yet generate any signal. Even on the hourly chart the signal to buy may not be formed below 1.5500.

It is also unclear why the price can only go up – today's UK retail sales for November are projected with a decrease to 0.3% vs. 0.6% in October. Or to the European data better than forecast, or for the purchase of pound of investment companies against news. Out of the market.

All the basic macroeconomic data of the Eurozone, released yesterday, showed an increase above forecast.

The index of purchasing managers in December (PMI): RR 46.9 vs 46.4 in November.

The non-manufacturing index (Service PMI): a 48.3 vs 47.5 Nov.

Business activity in the private sector for 47.9 vs 47.0 in November.

In the United States was also published about ten key indicators and although they were mixed, but the main of them showed a decrease. So industrial production for July (Industrial Production Index) fell by 0.9%: -0.2% vs. 0.7% Oct.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to 366К with 381К last week. Analysts attributed yesterday's rise in equity markets with this news (Dow Jones closing the day up 0.55 percent), but more significant are the European data and simply raising investors ' interest in shares and the Euro, withdrawal of funds of gold and commodity contracts.

The CoeffofLine oscillator in the positive zone. Breaking local maximum at 1.3049 possible to open long positions. The goal is the resistance trendline of the daily scale – 1.3169. Thus use caution from the local resistance marked on a four-hour timeframe.


Actual data on UK retail sales for November came out worse than expected: a -0.7% on month vs. -0.4% forecast and 0.6% Oct. However, these yoy were better than the forecast of 0.5% yoy against the forecast of 0.3%. With the imposition of a good European data, the pound showed yesterday growth.

Now published only two significant news for US: the inflation rate for the consumer basket – base index of consumer prices for November (forecast: unchanged at 0.1%) and the overall rate of inflation – the consumer price index (forecast 0.1% vs. -0.1% in October). If data is at the level forecast on the background of a General decline in economic activity in the US, the dollar may weaken.

Breaking the high of the Asian session 1.5542, and that overcoming the resistance trend line of the blue line of the four-hour scale, open goal 1.5577, it 1.5592. In the case of the rebound from the blue level on the four hour chart, where the price is now a possible correction to 1.5476 - Fibonacci level before continuing growth.


Foreign trade balance in the Eurozone in November fell more than in two times: € 1.1 billion vs 2.7 billion in October. The consumer price index USA for November showed an increase of 0,1%: 0,2% vs 0,1% Oct. But these Friday's data did not influence the quotes, it was evident that the market lives its own life; in the afternoon stock indexes and the Euro has grown simply because of the fact that they were buying. No matter how things went in the U.S. economy, the official news-makers (especially the fed) are convinced in the sequence of growth. The disappointment of investors about QE-3 is replaced by positive emotions and a further desire to spend the new year rally, albeit in a shortened form.

Today at 12:00 (Msk) published the balance of payments of the Eurozone. In General, the last three months the negative balance of the Eurozone decreases, showing in November was € 0.5 billion in the black (balances with seasonal correction - Current Account s.a.). Projected 1.9 bln

But not these are the main events today. Today at 18:00 (Msk) France place the bonds with various maturities totaling 7 billion euros. At 18:30 ECB opens seven-day tender on granting the same unlimited liquidity for a period of three years:

Also today, the U.S. Treasury holds auctions on placement of short-term bills worth 56 billion two-year notes $ 35 billion.

On Tuesday placed short-term bonds of Spain, Greece and Malta. A whole week of EU countries actively borrow. In this case, investors will pay attention to the yield on these securities to determine the recovery rate of the European economy.

There is reason to believe that today's European events will have on investors encouraging action.

Technically, breaking the level of 1.3035 it is possible to achieve the immediate objective of 1.3059, fixation above which is 1.3131.


Today at 03:00 has been released index of housing prices in the UK. Was shown an increase of 0.4% on the month and 0.3% on the year. However, the pair lost 65 points. Generally in most of England, reigning pessimism in terms of the recession. Unemployment has broken 17-year-old record (of 8.3%). The level of youth unemployment (people aged 16 to 24) is 22%.

Today Eurozone Finance Ministers will decide about the transfer of 200 billion euros to the IMF pursuant to agreements in Brussels. From the UK requires 30.9 billion Euro (25.9 billion pounds). Prime Minister David Cameron is resisting. Opened yesterday, according to English newspaper the Telegraph, the British foreign office has developed a plan to export up to one million immigrants from Spain and Portugal in the case of the European banking disaster. Probably, these problems and have a negative impact on the pound.

Technically GBP/USD holds nothing to drop to 1.5420. There is likely to rebound with a turn to the upper boundary of the channel (1.5540) and it breaks (1.5588) on the background of the permission of a question on granting to the IMF the necessary amounts and other positive solutions in Europe. However, the Brussels summit did not make any sense.

But paying attention to the rebound at the moment from the Fibonacci correction level 61.8% of the upward branch on December 14-16, further correction may not be. It remains to wait and see.


Yesterday, Moody's downgraded Belgium two notches to Aa3. However, the yield of the Belgian bonds is not affected (4,37%). The yield on Spanish ten-year bonds dropped to 5.1%. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose to 7%. Ten-year European bonds are gradually declining in profitability, now they are at the level of 1.8%. In General, the situation in the Eurozone with the debt crisis is on the mend, although certain forces are trying not to "encourage" market participants.

Also yesterday, the Eurozone without the United Kingdom decided to transfer the IMF 150 billion euros and some time to bring this figure up to the planned 200 billion.

The balance of the current balance of the Eurozone without seasonal adjustment (Current Account n.s.a.) decreased to -1.7 billion euros. GDP current account balance showed a fall from 2.2 billion to -7,5 billion euros against a forecast 1.9 bln

Yesterday, the Treasury Department sold bonds totaling $ 89.1 billion, perhaps this factor was also forced to maintain the exchange rate EUR/USD on the spot to implement the paper on the expensive dollar.

The American investment company report the output of commodities futures before Christmas and New year, which also affects the stock market decline and the Euro.

When you first look at the chart of the Euro has certainly seen the pressure on him. But the lights and curved the price on the hourly chart (the arc without convergence is understood as a reversal formation) show the maturing of the upward movement.

Target levels, noted yesterday, is adjusted.


So, yesterday the pound was not deep and the opening of the European session, rushed up.

Today at 14:00 (Msk) published a sentiment index of the Confederation of British Industry. It is expected to increase by 7 points with a 19p. Nov up-12P. Dec. At 16:30 published start of construction in the U.S. for November: expected vs 628 635 thousand thousand Oct. Now this is an important indicator, the fed recently focuses on the slowdown in construction.

The decision of a question on transfer of funds to the IMF from Eurozone countries yesterday resolved very well and without the participation of the UK: 150 billion euros, they agreed to transfer immediately and another 50 billion later. That is, the Kingdom "saved" 31 billion euros and psychologically, the pound may also rise.

The Marlin oscillator holds above the zero line, we need to overcome the moving of the balance line (red). Breaking the trendline on 1.5543 open goal 1.5588.


During yesterday's European session, the pair EUR/USD sharply went up after the publication of the German index of business circles: the assessment of the current economic situation for December came out with a value equal to: 116,7 points, but against the forecast 116 p. economic expectations Index showed an increase of 1.1%: 98,4 97,3 p. p. against November forecast 97,0 p. the Index of mood in business circles has increased by 0.6 points: 107,2 106,6 p. vs Nov and vs pessimistic forecast 106.0 p. these data, as well as due to the beginning giving the banks a very cheap liquidity for a period of three years, the Euro strengthened against the opening of the American session on 60 points. Next came the key performance indicators for construction in the United States; beginning of construction of new homes in November showed an increase of 57 thousand: 685К against 628К October and forecast 635К (in terms of annual dynamics). Building permits in November were issued 681 653 thousand thousand against the previous month. Compared with November 2010 the number of permits rose by 20.7%. After the publication of the data, the Euro rose by 60 points.

American DJ30 index had shown growth of 2.33%, the German DAX30 rose by 3.0 percent, the European DJ STOXX50 (or EU Stocks50) rose 1.7%. Solid growth of 2.7 USD has shown oil. To closing of trading session DJ30 showed an increase of 2.79%, DJ STOXX50 by 2.22%.

As a result of Bank's optimism on the provision of unlimited credit, the yield on three-month Spanish bonds fell to 1.74%, the yield on Spanish desjatiletki fell below 5%.

Technically, the growth stopped at the point of intersection of the Fibo level, 138,2% and the Kruzenshtern line (digital MA blue). On the four-hour chart the price twice tested this trend line than strengthened its significance. Open positions at the purchase is possible only after the price overcomes this moving, above 1.3130. The goal is the resistance trendline of the daily scale - 1.3189. This goal is formed by the intersection of bear brown four-hour line scale – one of the lines of the Fibonacci channel. In case the price rebounds from the line of Kruzenshtern, the price can reach 76.4% of the Fibonacci correction level (1.3052).


Positive from Europe to the UK was strengthened by the release of statistics on retail sales December: 9 vs.- 19p. November forecast -10p.

Rating Agency Moody's yesterday issued a warning that in case of deterioration of economic situation in the Eurozone, the UK can lose the highest credit rating of AAA. This statement was made at the request of the French authorities not to make exceptions in the possible revision of ratings for any of the countries. But amid the General optimism in the market this news is not considered relevant.

Yesterday the price overcame three target levels, reaching a high of 1.5700. On the daily chart the price has fixated above the trend line of Kruzenshtern and Marlin oscillator is left in a positive zone. Now target is resistance of the upward trend line around 1.5794 in the region of the maximum on November 30. Intermediate target is 1.5754 marked on the four-hour chart.

Maybe "squat" in price to the support trend line (1.5643).

From the resistance trend line in the range 1.5766-1.5794 possible beginning of a correction as the development of a second Elliott wave, assumed in the forecast from December 15:


At yesterday's auction for granting three-year loans to 523 European Bank took 489 billion euros. In the first hours of trading, the market is actively growing, but when the volume reached 400 billion, suddenly began to fall. Perhaps the players want to fix a two-day quick profit, but on the other hand, analysts expect the demand for currency in the amount of not more than 300 billion euros, and this increased demand could confirm suspicions that the real shortfall in European banks.

Also because the world's attention to Italy, the markets sensitively reacted to the decline in the country's GDP by 0.2% in the third quarter, the increase in exports by 1.6% and import increase of 1.1%. The forecast decline in GDP was 0.1%. On these data, the yield on Italian ten-year bonds rose to 6.65%.

Italy's debt is 1.9 trillion euros.

The Chinese national social security Fund, yesterday announced its intention to support the Chinese stock market for 10 billion yuan (1.58 billion dollars). This news supported the Asian site and created a General positive picture on the world market.

In General the current situation of the Eurozone can be characterized as neutral. Macroeconomic statistics on the Eurozone today and Friday will not be published, markets will focus on US data.

Today at 16:30 (GMT) GDP in the USA for the 3rd quarter: the expected value is unchanged: 2.0 percent. Unemployment rate is also expected unchanged: a 2.5%. The inflation indicator is the Personal Consumption Expenditures – the basic price index of personal consumption in Q3 is also expected unchanged: 2.0 percent. Applications for unemployment benefits for the week are expected to increase by 9 thousand: 366К to 375К.

At 17:55 published index of consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan (University of Michigan Confidence) in December. Forecast vs 67,7 68,2 p. p. Nov.

Technically, the price worked out the range of channels of daily and four-hour scale and fell back to the support of Fibonacci channel. In cases of slip rates along the Fibonacci channel, as is happening now, the price is difficult to continue growth, as a rule, the further the motion is zigzag. Objective: 1.3100. With the break of channel resistance Fibonacci next target will be the resistance of the downward trend of the red line.


British the December consumer confidence came below the forecast and amounted to -33 vs -31P. Nov. The need of the public sector on a cash basis rose to 10.5 billion pounds higher than forecast at 10.3 billion According to the British newspaper the Financial Times the government spending will only increase. But the pound grew on the overall positive dynamics of world markets.

Today at 12:30 (GMT) GDP for the third quarter, the forecast of 0.5%. The balance of payments for the third quarter is expected -6,1 billion pounds to 2.0 billion against the second quarter.

In yesterday's press release from the MPC meeting on 8 December, it was said that the members of the Commission unanimously voted to keep rates at 0.5%. It was also decided on the redemption of government bonds worth £ 75 billion and in General, the Commission wishes to see a stronger pound.

Yesterday's throw up, the price has completed the formation of the third b in the first wave of the higher scale. It is expected the formation of the fifth subwave completion of the first as the highest dimension in the 1.5800 area. At the moment the price has fixated above the trend line of Kruzenshtern, which is now support. On the four-hour chart the support is the trend line (blue).